Economía, tudosis

06 febrero 2012

Guindos ayuda a Rato porque Botín y Fainé no llegan y FG se escaquea

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Estupefacto se ha quedado más de un banquero y financiero cuando ha comprobado que el anunciado traje a medida para la Bankia de Rodrigo Rato que anunciaba Ángeles Gonzalo el 24 de enero, se ha convertido en el verdadero arma para que la antigua Cajamadrid continúe sola e incluso prepare alguna mini-boda de conveniencia como la oferta por Unnim. Rato no necesitará ni a su antiguo amigo FG, ni a Botín ni a Fainé, pero ¿eso es posible? Las dudas persisten en el sector y se cuestiona la efectividad del proceso de la segundas oleada de fusiones.

 

 

¿Por qué ha causado asombro y perplejidad en el sector? Sencillo, cambia el panorama de las nuevas fusiones. Si hasta el viernes pasado se daba por hecho que la situación de la antigua Cajamadrid (ahora Bankia) que pilota el exvicepresidente del Gobierno del PP necesitaba una fusión con uno de los tres grandes -Santander, Caixabank o BBVA- hoy “queda claro, a la espera de cómo se desarrollen los acontecimientos, que como a Rato no le han podido aceptar la idea del banco malo, donde aparcar los activos dañados que le asfixian, han optado por esta otra solución tan extraña. Habrá que esperar, pero de entrada rompe con la idea de sanear de verdad las entidades en esta segunda etapa de fusiones que pretende Guindos. Bankia necesita un socio solvente, grande, no una huida hacia adelante” explica un ex directivo de la Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros (CECA).

 

 

Para un analista de una gran financiera, “es asombroso, pero no me atrevo a hablar de caciquismo del PP aún. Yo creo que es un problema de personas, de los cuatros que están implicados, Rato, FG (presidente del BBVA), Botín (Santander) e Isidro Fainé (Caixabank). Rodrigo no se ve por debajo de ninguno de ellos, y menos aún después de lo que dijo Francisco González, el tono que empleó en la presentación de resultados la semana pasada. Rechazó la fusión BBVA-Bankia con soberbia, diciendo que sería algo así como crear un problema y nos dejó a todos boquiabiertos ¿qué ha pasado entre Rato y FG? Fue Rato, cuando era vicepresidente económico, quien le hizo presidente del BBVA” recuerda el analista.

 

 

En la actitud y la personalidad de los cuatro principales banqueros de este país abunda también un ex ministro de Economía, para quien “hay que recordar que Rato fue consejero de Botín  y estuvo en CaixaBank con Fainé cuando regresó del Fondo Monetario Inernacional. Con los dos se lleva bien, pero sobre todo, quien más generoso ha sido en estos momentos ha sido Fainé, quién podría acceder a darle una salida digna, un gran cargo -Fainé es mayor que Rato- si se fusionaran Bankia y Caixabank. Pero la segunda tiene que absorber a la primera. Otra cosa no se entiende. Y los problemas políticos que hay detrás son insalvables.”

 

 

¿Y con Botín?

“Lo mismo, tendría que absorber el Santander. Existía la posibilidad de una fusión con Banesto y Bankia, pero Botín tiene mucho que digerir, incluso después de haber liquidado en Colombia. Y está esperando a que todo baje aquí para aprovechar los retales. De todas formas, Botín sería menos generoso que Fainé en una salida digna para Rodrigo Rato. Y aún así, tanto Fainé como Botín lo harían mejor que FG, del qué nadie sabemos que le ha pasado con Rodrigo”.

Sea como fuere, la noticia de que Bankia- y otras entidades a las que el Fondo de Rescate ha prestado ayuda “por importe no superior al 2% de sus activos ponderados por riesgo” podrán comprar a otras cajas -el propio presidente de Bankia ha confirmado la oferta por Unnim- ha sido aprobada también por el Gobernador del Banco de España, Miguel Ángel Fernández Ordóñez y no deja indiferente a nadie en el sector.

Puestas así las cosas, las nuevas fusiones van a dar que hablar.

 

 

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