Economía, Política, tudosis

16 marzo 2010

Por qué te afecta la rebelión de las gallinas y el IVA en la granja del Congreso


Así que esa pelea de hoy en el Congreso sobre la subida del IVA te aburre como un muerto. Pues ya puedes resucitar, porque de una u otra forma, van a tocarte el bolsillo. Al menos y por muy marginata y cínico que seas, deberías tener una idea de qué va esto. Si quieres, ahí van unas claves sencillitas para entender si te van a fastidiar con o sin razón. La disyuntiva a la que juegan es que tú, puto suertudo con trabajo, tienes que pagar el paro de tu amigo, que está bien fastidiado. Vale, pero ¿debe de ser con el IVA?

Por Ana R. Cañil

La jefa de la granja del PP, Esperanza Aguirre, tiene hoy su primer momento de gloria, desde que llamó a la rebelión contra este Impuesto . Un impuesto que se introdujo en España en 1986, para armonizar nuestra situación con la de la Unión Europea.
No olvides que el IVA es un impuesto de los llamados indirectos (no recae directamente sobre la renta de personas, como el IRPF, sino sobre el consumo) y es, junto con los impuestos especiales -tabaco, alochol y gasolina- el que más recauda.

Ese es el problema del IVA, que grava el consumo para todos. Tiene tres tramos:

  • Tipo general: 16%. Es el tipo que se aplica por defecto cuando no resulta aplicable ninguno de los otros tipos. El que más recauda.
  • Tipo reducido 7%. Aplicado básicamente a algunos productos alimenticios y a los productos sanitarios, transporte de viajeros, la mayoría de servicios de hostelería y la construcción de viviendas.
  • Tipo superreducido: 4%. Aplicado a productos de alimentación, libros, periódicos (y análogos) y especialidades farmacéuticas.

El general pasa del 16 al 18% según la subida del Gobierno, y reducido del 7 al 8%, mientras que el básico del 4% queda como está.

Algún apunte para que entiendas algo

El Gobierno anunció está medida de subida del IVA en septiembre pasado para el 1 de julio. Zapatero argumentó que sería una subida “temporal” y la ministra Salgado se amparó en que hasta la mismísima Ángela Merkel había anunciado subida de impuestos. Subida que tras ganar las elecciones, Merkel ha tenido que dejar aparcada hasta más allá del 2011.
El argumento del Gobierno es que una subida del IVA era necesaria para mantener las prestaciones del paro y el estado del bienestar. Pero las cosas se han ido poniendo en su contra desde el pasado septiembre. De la mano de Elena Salgado y del titular de Industria, Miguel Sebastián, convencido de que al anunciar una subida del impuesto con nueve meses de antelación, todos los que tenían que hacer alguna obra en su casa, comprar algún electrodoméstico, cambiar un armario y demás chapuzas, iban a tirar la casa por la ventana para que no les pillara el 1 de julio sin todos los apaños arreglados.

Primer fallo de pronóstico. No ha sido así. Los españoles que tienen trabajo y pueden consumir, acojonados, han seguido ahorrando y el consumo sigue sin tirar.

Impuesto injusto

Otro argumento de los enemigos de la subida es que es un impuesto injusto. Al ser sobre el consumo, recae sobre todo el mundo, ricos y pobres. Los que tienen menos renta no van a dejar de comprar el tostador o la minipimer con que la madre hace la papilla del más pequeño y no puede ahorrar. Sin embargo, los más ricos, con rentas más altas y bien informados, van a escaquearse de hacer las inversiones o compras más importantes en el IVA general, a la espera de que esto cambie. Siguen guardando el dinero, por el que reciben una remuneración mejor que si lo gastan en consumir.

Otra razón en contra de la subida es que hay consenso entre los organismos inernacionales (FMI, OCDE, BCE) en que no es el momento de quitar -drenar dicen ellos- dinero del bolsillo de los ciudadanos. Afecta directamente al consumo y a esa gran señora que en España se ha convertido en una desconocida desde hace un par de años: la confianza.

Una de psicología, lo que importa

Si en este momento somos un país con cuatro millones y medio de parados y diecisiete millones y medio de gentes que trabajan, los parados dependen de que los trabajadores se echen a la espalda una de optimismo y les de por consumir. Cambiar de coche, de lavadora, de pantalones y hasta ampliar la semana de vacaciones. Pero con unos titulares de pánico en la prensa, Aguirre vociferando y un debate como el de hoy en el Congreso sobre la subida de impuestos ¿a quién le va a volver el optimismo con esta clase política?
Los simpatizantes de ZP dicen también, pero por lo bajo, que se ha equivocado con el IVA. No se puede subir un impuesto de esa magnitud -insisto, el que más recauda de los indirectos, junto con los especiales- cuando la economía no ha despegado. Hubiera sido necesario esperar a que esto mejore en crecimiento, en unos meses, un año, con un plan a medio plazo. No hay síntomas reales, que se toquen.

Vale, entonces ¿de dónde saca el dinero el Gobierno para pagar el paro y el resto de subsidios? Bueno, la respuesta rápida y fácil es que hubiera sido mejor una subida de los impuestos especiales. El tipo que fuma difícilmente lo va a dejar de un día para otro y no te cuento nada los que le dáis a la litrona en el fin de semana, o al ron con coca-cola. O los que os montáis en un coche de cinco en cinco para marcaros una semana de rural en Semana Santa.

Si quieres saber más, está lleno de artículos de sesudos expertos, como el Juan Carlos Conesa , Javier Díaz-Giménez, Julián Díaz-Saavedra y otros sobre los efectos que cada subida de un punto del IVA tienen sobre el consumo del PIB por habitante, que están teniendo bastante repercusión entre los sabios. Ojo. Es un documento en PDF y tienes que tener cuidado al descargarlo. Son 40 páginas y a mí me petó el ordenata. Confieso que no he terminado de leerlo, pero los que saben lo recomiendan. Te quedará bien en una tesis o para fardar.

De vuelta al coñazo del debate en el Congreso, si con las modestas claves que te hemos dado no te interesa mucho el asunto, recuerda: basicamente te van a plantear la disyuntiva de o subir el IVA y recaudar para pagar el paro y otras prestaciones similares o recortar el gasto en el estado del bienestar. Te afecta. Seas solidario o un egoísta de tres pares de narices.

Y¡cuidado! Con esto que te hemos contado -solo un apunte para que pierdas la repugnancia hacía la economía que- te guste o no, te hurgan en el bolsillo. No estamos dando la razón a la llamada de Esperanza a la rebelión en una granja llena de gallinas. La presidenta de la Comunidad de Madrid practica el cinismo más espectacular y lleva a Rajoy y los suyos del ronzal. Sabe perfectamente que es un delito llamar a la insumisión fiscal contra un Gobierno elegido democráticamente y tiene una jeta que se la pisa. Ella tiene como unos zorros todas sus prestaciones sociales, desde la de la ayuda a los dependientes, pasando por la Sanidad de la Comunidad, por no hablar de las subidas de impuestos del transporte público o las tasas de basuras de su compañero Gallardón.

Otro dato: hay gente el equipo económico del Gobierno que tiene ya todas las dudas sobre la conveniencia de subir el IVA. La cuestión es como salir de ese jardín en el que se metieron, una vez más por el optimismo y la precipitación de ZP, los consejo del ministro de Industria y el sí a todo de la titular de Economía.

Artículos Relacionados:

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41 Comentarios

Comentarios

41 Comentarios

  1. Jorge Sánchez dice:

    Bueno, todo eso y que también podrían haber subido el tipo de las Sicav como se les sugirió desde IU, y nada. Más Salgado reconociendo que no deberían haber quitado el impuesto de patrimonio, etcétera etcétera.

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