El documento en el que el Gobierno se va a apoyar para reducir el gasto en pensiones quema las manos por las que va pasando, menos las del PP. Apremiado, más si cabe, por Bruselas que ha accedido a dar más margen al objetivo de déficit a cambio de acelerar la reforma de las pensiones, el Ejecutivo quiere pactar cuanto antes con los demás partidos para que el cabreo social se reparta entre todos. Cuando en julio de 2011 el Gobierno Zapatero aprobó junto con CiU, la reforma de pensiones que alargaba hasta los 67 la edad de jubilación e introducía el factor de sostenibilidad sin detallar cómo se calcularía a partir de 2027, el PP se desmarcó indignado: “Éramos más proteccionistas, pero ahora hay que hacerlo porque no hay dinero”, tal y como justifica un diputado popular el giro económico radical del partido ahora en el poder.
Para que nadie quede desamparado, igual se debería blindar la suficiencia de las pensiones en la Carta Magna, como se hizo para garantizar el cumplimiento del déficit ante Bruselas cuando se modificó la intocable Constitución. Se lo hemos planteado a sus señorías ahora que el grupo de sabios que elabora el borrador donde se determina el futuro de nuestras pensiones está a punto de enviar sus conclusiones al Pacto de Toledo para su debate.
La propuesta establece dos principios básicos: el primero, que la actualización de la pensión de los jubilados se realizará cada año ateniéndose a los ingresos y los gastos de la Seguridad Social, en vez de tener como referente la subida de los precios (IPC); en segundo lugar, el ajuste de la prestaciones de los que tenemos que jubilarnos en el futuro se hará de acuerdo a cómo se alargue la esperanza de vida y al número de cotizantes (de trabajadores que paguen a la Seguridad Social).
Conclusión básica: las pensiones públicas bajarán sin remedio. A corto plazo, los ingresos de la Seguridad Social disminuyen porque cada vez hay menos trabajadores que cotizan (y más parados con derecho a cobrar prestación por desempleo); para los futuros jubilados del 2050-60 (plazos que incluye el borrador), la esperanza de vida aumentará y el número de ancianos será cada vez mayor (en el camino hay que incluir a los baby boom de los 60), por tanto la pensión pública encogerá más que un jersey de angora en la lavadora. El grado de disminución de esas pensiones queda al albur de la clase política, de quienes gobiernen en cada momento, por eso no estaría de más reforzar la alusión constitucional al derecho a una pensión digna.
La vicepresidenta Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría asegura: “Estamos trabajando en lograr un pacto para asegurar las pensiones, aunque tocar la Constitución es más difícil. No vamos a permitir que nadie quede en la indigencia”. ¡Dios la oiga! El afán por pactar lo suscribe también el equipo de la ministra de Trabajo, Fátima Bañez. Su interés por acordar la reforma responde, según Cayo Lara, a “tratar de legitimar un plan condenado al fracaso porque camina por dos direcciones inasumibles, como el recorte de las prestaciones y alargar la edad de jubilación. Y en el fondo, a la oscura pretensión de deteriorar las pensiones para trasvasarlas a la contratación privada, ya que ahora los fondos privados de pensiones representan sólo el 7%”.
Tampoco a Valeriano Gómez, responsable económico del PSOE y ministro que comandó la última reforma, le parece aceptable: “Hemos visto el borrador y no nos ha gustado nada porque no tiene nada que ver ni siquiera con el nombre. Se iba a abordar cómo se calculaba el factor de sostenibilidad en función del factor demográfico. Y lo que hace es concentrar toda la reforma en la cuantía de la pensión y encima adelantan la entrada en vigor del 2027 al 2014. Cuando lo que es importante es que las pensiones tengan un equilibrio, de forma que cuando la economía va bien se dote el fondo de reserva del que se tira cuando las cosas van mal. Insisto, no estamos de acuerdo con la propuesta. Lo que tiene que hacer el Gobierno es no escudarse en la comisión de expertos”.
A Carles Campuzano, de CiU, lo que más le preocupa es “no crear alarma social hasta que se ultime el borrador”. Para el responsable económico catalán “el sistema público de pensiones solo tiene como justificación reducir el riesgo de pobreza de los pensionistas más débiles. Cualquier reforma que no cumpla esta premisa sería del todo inútil y el problema va más allá del factor de sostenibilidad, que es para lo que se ha encargado el borrador”. Campuzano defiende que “el Gobierno debe de entender que este es un tema que exige un acuerdo político lo más amplio posible, mucho más allá de su mayoría absoluta, y no basta decir que las pensiones públicas pueden complementarse con las privadas”.
La sospecha de que tras la reforma, además de la premura de la UE, se esconde un interés por beneficiar a las aseguradoras y al sector financiero favoreciendo el trasvase de pensionistas, surge constantemente. Es lo que intuye Alberto Garzón, de IU, que cree que la reforma al final: “Se aplicará sin pacto porque no lo veo posible. El comité de sabios se ha seleccionado con un perfil muy economicista, que lo único que valora es la sostenibilidad económica, dejando a un lado los derechos sociales de los ciudadanos. Se está proponiendo un proceso regresivo”.
En el PP, una de las mentes económicas más preclaras -y por lo tanto minoritaria- no ve más opción que recordar los orígenes del sistema de pensiones: “Desde los tiempos de Bismarck, las pensiones fueron concebidas como un sistema de reparto. Yo reparto lo que ingreso. Y este problema convive con la legalidad que tiene entendida el trabajador y es que él tiene derecho a cobrar su pensión de acuerdo con lo que ha cotizado. Y eso no es así. Zapatero, subiendo las pensiones mínimas, ha encarecido muchísimo el coste de la Seguridad Social. La cuestión es si una parte de las pensiones mínimas debe estar financiada con la subida de impuestos”.
Las dudas se despejarán rápido porque antes de Navidades el tema tiene que estar resuelto, con o sin acuerdo.
Artículo publicado en el Huffington Post
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