Economía, tudosis

29 junio 2013

Los hombres de negro se pelean demasiado tarde

Por

-El alejamiento del FMI de la troika se haría de forma gradual, para no asustar a los mercados.

-En privado, todos los políticos implicados reconocen el fracaso de la austeridad. El problema es que la alternativa al ‘austericidio’ es que el Norte -Alemania- ponga más dinero.El miedo a que los mercados castiguen un cambio de políticas atenaza a los gobiernos.

La directora del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Christine Lagarde. ¿Bronceada o quemada?

La troika está a la greña. O eso aparentan. Desde que el 5 de junio el todopoderoso Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), reconociera que se les ha ido la mano con las políticas de austeridad en Grecia -”se han cometido muchos errores”- los griegos, portugueses, españoles y sus crisis -millones de parados, recesión sin perspectiva de salida cierta, excluidos y hambre- se han convertido en un marrón que tratan de endilgarse unos a otros. La Comisión Europea y el BCE, más finamente, miran torcido a los del Fondo que pilota Christine Lagarde, porque sin empacho han verbalizado lo que era una realidad a gritos en las calles de la Europa del Sur, que la austeridad no da resultados y amenaza con prolongar la asfixia durante décadas. Ya llevamos seis años. Lo curioso es que mientras en la conciencia ciudadana no ha calado aún que los hombres de negro, entendido como  vigilantes de alienígenas hasta que llegó esta crisis, andan peleados, en las grandes corporaciones financieras y económicas ya tienen descontado una posible ruptura entre el trío sin piedad.

 

“En realidad, el FMI no debía de haber estado en el rescate a Europa“, reflexiona un joven analista de uno de los bancos de inversiones más poderosos de Europa. “Si el Fondo entró fue porque tenía mucha más credibilidad que las instituciones europeas, léase la Comisión y el BCE. Tienen equipos técnicos buenos, con experiencia en gestión de crisis -aunque no siempre con éxito y sobre todo referido a las economías emergentes- y daban credibilidad de cara a los mercados. Es verdad que muchos socios europeos no querían al Fondo en la UE, especialmente los franceses, pero para dar confianza era clave. Ahora bien, a estas alturas ya no está clara la razón por la que tiene que seguir en la gestión de Europa y aprovecha para desmarcarse de una situación que está mal. No sé si se irán, aunque daría un poco igual”.

 

Esa posición, la de que a estas alturas las peleas entre el FMI, la Comisión y el BCE nos afectan de forma relativa, es la que mantiene también el economista, escritor y ex-ministro Jordi Sevilla, quien lo primero que recuerda al plantearle el asunto es que el FMI ha intervenido en el rescate de Europa porque “Alemania tenía una seria desconfianza respecto a las instituciones europeas, que no tenían ninguna experiencia en asuntos de este tipo. A mi me parece muy bien que el FMI casi constituya otra internacional socialista con las críticas a las políticas de austeridad -añade con sarcasmo el ex ministro- pero podían haberlo pensado antes. Desde el punto de vista del ciudadano, lo cierto es que el 85% del trabajo de la troika ya está hecho y lo que queda por hacer es la aplicación de políticas intraeuropeas, desde el asunto de la unidad bancaria en el BCE, el plan de financiación de las pymes o rematar los rescates. Además, quien paga manda y en Europa, creo que el FMI ha puesto muy poco dinero. Casi todo ha venido de la propia UE. No, no creo que al ciudadano le afecte una posible ruptura, que más bien será mediática y política”.

 

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